Where Could Ebola Strike Next? Scientists Hunt Virus In Asia

Jan 2, 2015
Originally published on January 3, 2015 11:45 am

A few years ago, disease ecologist David Hayman made the discovery of a lifetime.

He was a graduate student at the University of Cambridge. But he spent a lot of that time hiking through the rain forest of Ghana, catching hundreds of fruit bats.

"We would set large nets, up in the tree canopies," he says. "And then early morning, when the bats are looking for fruit to feed on, we'd captured them."

Hayman didn't want to hurt the bats. He just wanted a few drops of their blood.

Bats carry a huge number of viruses in their blood. When Hayman took the blood samples back to the lab, he found a foreboding sign: a high level of antibodies against Ebola Zaire.

Right away, Hayman was concerned.

Ebola Zaire is the deadliest of the five Ebola species, and it has caused the most outbreaks. The antibodies in the bat's blood meant the animals had once been infected with Ebola Zaire or something related to it.

Hayman knew West Africa was at risk for an Ebola outbreak. He and his colleagues even published the findings in the free journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, "so that anyone in the world could go and read them," Hayman says.

He thought health officials would also be worried. "We were all prepared for some sort of response, for questions," Hayman says. "But I have to say, not many came. ... Nothing happened."

That was two years ago. Now, with more than 20,000 Ebola cases reported in West Africa, health officials are definitely listening to Hayman.

Scientists think bats likely triggered the entire Ebola epidemic in West Africa. Just as Hayman predicted. "It's not a good way to be proven right," he says.

So now the big question is: Where else in the world is Ebola hiding out in bats? Where could the next big outbreak occur?

To find out, I called ecologist Kevin Olival at EcoHealth Alliance in New York City. Olival hunts down another virus in bats, called Nipah. In humans, it causes inflammation in the brain and comas. "It's the virus the movie Contagion is based on," Olival says.

Nipah has outbreaks every few years in Bangladesh. So Olival went there back in 2010 and captured a bunch of bats. Many had signs of Nipah in their blood. Others had something surprising: "There's antibodies to something related to Ebola Zaire."

Before this discovery, scientists thought Ebola Zaire was found only in Africa. "If you think about geographic space," Olival says, "it was a big shock to find evidence for this virus in a very faraway place in south Asia."

Olival and his colleagues published these findings in February 2013. Then, a few months later, a team reported evidence for the virus in China.

The bats with these antibodies have a broad range across south Asia, Olival says. "These species are found all the way down into parts of Indonesia."

The data suggest that Ebola Zaire is far more widespread around the world than previously thought.

So does that mean Ebola could have outbreaks in Bangladesh, China or Indonesia?

"Well, that's a tricky one," Olival says. "I think if you have the right combination of potential events, and sort of the perfect storm brews, then, yeah, it's possible."

Now, there's no sign bats have infected people in Asia with Ebola Zaire. And antibody tests can't say whether the virus in the bats was specifically Ebola Zaire or something related.

But Olival isn't waiting to find out. Both he and David Hayman, who's now at Massey University in New Zealand, are working on ways to predict when and where Ebola and other deadly viruses will cause outbreaks.

In particular, Olival is working with USAID to build an early warning system for dangerous viruses. The system could alert communities when the risk of an outbreak is high. People could be more careful while hunting bats or avoid their guano.

"The ultimate goal is to move toward prediction," Olival says. "Again and again, we're hearing with the current massive Ebola outbreak that if it was detected earlier it would have been better contained."

Because both ecologists agree: It's not a question of whether a virus in the Ebola family will cause an outbreak outside of Africa, but a matter of when and where.

Copyright 2015 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.

Transcript

DAVID GREENE, HOST:

A small group of scientists saw some ominous signs a few years ago, signs of a possible outbreak of Ebola in West Africa. They had trouble getting anyone to listen to them. Now an outbreak has killed thousands there, and people are starting to listen to those scientists. They're beginning to pick up clues of where Ebola could strike next. NPR's Michaeleen Doucleff spoke with them.

MICHAELEEN DOUCLEFF, BYLINE: A few years ago, disease ecologist David Hayman made the discovery of a lifetime. He was a graduate student with the University of Cambridge, studying Ebola. And he spent a lot of that time hiking around the rain forest in West Africa...

(SOUNDBITE OF INSECTS CHIRPING)

DOUCLEFF: Catching hundreds of fruit bats.

DAVID HAYMAN: We would set large nets up into the tree canopies. And then, early morning, when the bats are looking for fruit to feed on, we would catch them, pull down the nets and then take the bats out.

DOUCLEFF: Hayman held each bat in his hands, spread its giant wings and pricked it with a tiny needle. All he wanted was one drop of blood. You see, bats have a huge number of viruses in their blood. When Hayman took the samples back to the lab, he found a foreboding sign.

HAYMAN: A high level of antibodies against Ebola virus.

DOUCLEFF: The antibodies meant the bats had been infected with Ebola or something related to it. Hayman knew right away that West Africa was at risk for an outbreak. And he thought health officials would be worried too.

HAYMAN: We were all prepared for a sort of response for questions. And I have to say, not many came.

DOUCLEFF: That was two years ago. Now health officials are definitely listening to Hayman. Scientists think that fruit bats triggered the entire Ebola epidemic in West Africa, just as Hayman predicted. So a big question now is, where else in the world is Ebola hiding? Kevin Olival is an ecologist at EcoHealth Alliance in New York City. He hunts down another virus in bats called Nipah. It causes your brain to swell and then puts you in a coma. Olival says Nipah is so gruesome, it inspired a Hollywood movie.

(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "CONTAGION")

KATE WINSLET: (As Dr. Erin Mears) Hello?

DAN AHO: (As Aaron Barnes) Hello?

WINSLET: (As Dr. Erin Mears) Mr. Barnes?

AHO: (As Aaron Barnes) Yes.

WINSLET: (As Dr. Erin Mears) This - this is Dr. Mears from the Centers for Disease Control.

DOUCLEFF: That's Kate Winslet in the movie "Contagion." Her job was to break the bad news to people that they had the Nipah-like virus.

(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "CONTAGION")

WINSLET: (As Dr. Erin Mears) Listen. It's quite possible you've come in contact with an infectious disease and that you're highly contagious.

DOUCLEFF: And Nipah is also quite deadly. It causes outbreaks every few years in Bangladesh, so Olival went there in 2010 and captured a bunch of bats. Many had signs of Nipah in their blood. Others had something surprising.

KEVIN OLIVAL: There's antibodies to something related to Ebola Zaire.

DOUCLEFF: Ebola Zaire is the type of virus spreading around West Africa right now. It's also the most deadly form of Ebola. Until this discovery, scientists thought Ebola Zaire was found only in Africa. Now they've found signs of it in Bangladesh and China.

OLIVAL: If you think about geographic space, it was a big shock to find, you know, evidence for this virus in a very faraway place in South Asia.

DOUCLEFF: Does that make you think that Ebola could emerge in Bangladesh?

OLIVAL: (Laughter). Well, that's a tricky one. I think if you have the right, you know, combination of potential events and sort of the perfect storm brews, then yeah, it's possible.

DOUCLEFF: Olival is working with USAID to build an Ebola early warning system around the world. Now, there's no sign bats have infected people in Asia yet. And David Hayman says it's actually quite rare for bats to pass Ebola on to people.

HAYMAN: There's an enormous amount of human-bat contact in - generally. And, you know, in a way, maybe we should question why there've been so few outbreaks.

DOUCLEFF: Still, these ecologists say it's not whether a virus in the Ebola family will cause an outbreak outside of Africa, but a matter of when and where. Michaeleen Doucleff, NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.