Democrats who control state government have left the state budget in disarray. They’ve failed to come together on a major public works plan that would put thousands of people to work. They’ve openly talked about impeaching their own governor.
With these examples of discord, you’d think Republicans would be poised to make significant gains in the Illinois General Assembly this November.
Think again.
With U.S. Sen. Barack Obama leading the ticket as the Democratic nominee for president, Democrats could be the ones who pick up even more seats in the legislature this year.
All told, there are 82 contested races for seats in the House and Senate on the November ballot. Of those, however, just a handful look to be competitive.
Voters in Chicago’s suburbs, formerly a GOP bastion, will see the lion’s share of the electoral fisticuffs, but contests in each region of the state could become heated.
In the northwest, an open-seat battle for retired Republican state Sen. Todd Sieben’s seat pits Galena Democrat Marty Mulcahey against former Lee County Sheriff Tim Bivins.
In the south, incumbent Democrat Sen. Gary Forby of Benton faces fellow Bentonian Ken Burzynski, the brother of state Sen. Brad Burzynski, a Republican from Clare.
In central Illinois, state Rep. Aaron Schock’s bid to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood of Peoria has spawned an Illinois House race between Democrat Jehan Gordon and Republican Joan Krupa.
Republicans are looking to close the widening gap between themselves and Democrats, who hold a 37-22 majority in the Illinois Senate and a 67-51 majority in the House.
The race for Senate seats will feature two re-matches in the suburbs, with incumbents Matt Murphy, a Republican, and Linda Holmes, a Democrat, again attempting to fend off tough challenges.
In the House, Speaker Michael Madigan is looking to gain at least five Democratic seats, which would give him a veto-proof majority.
He has painted targets on the backs of incumbent Republicans such as Beth Coulson of Glenview and Rosemary Mulligan of Des Plaines, hoping to add to his control of the chamber.
House Republican Leader Tom Cross, meanwhile, is looking to gain in areas such as southern Illinois, where longtime state Rep. Kurt Granberg, a Democrat from Carlyle, is retiring. Republican John Cavaletto of Salem has run for the seat twice previously and is squaring off this time against Marion County Treasurer Patti Hahn.
But lurking over the shoulder of every GOP strategist is the specter of Obama, who could spur record voter turnout among Illinoisans.
“It’s going to be a Democratic year. It just doesn’t look like there’s a lot of vulnerability,” says Kent Redfield, a political scientist at the University of Illinois at Springfield.
Cross downplays the potential Obama factor. “I think the phenomenon of him being the rock star will wane a little bit as the race tightens up,” he says.
What’s more, Cross believes legislative races outside of the Chicago area may not feel the effects of Obama on the ticket because state lawmakers enjoy a higher profile in downstate Illinois’ districts.
Regional politics, Cross adds, also will play a role. “I think his effect diminishes as it moves downstate because it is a more conservative part of the state.”
But while Republicans hope to thwart the effect of Obama’s candidacy, they are adopting his strategy. At the Illinois State Fair in August, GOP dignitaries stood beneath a banner that read “Change.”
“We need change in Illinois” by getting rid of Democrats who control state government, says Randy Pollard, Republican Party chairman in Fayette County.
In the 26th Senate District, the retirement of state Sen. Bill Peterson has opened the door for Democrat Bill Gentes to take on Republican Dan Duffy of Lake Barrington.
Duffy, a wealthy businessman, is expected to hammer away at the gridlock in state government under Democratic rule. Gentes, mayor of Round Lake, will likely try to focus on his service to the community.
Issues such as the economy, rapid growth in the district, taxes and transportation are likely to play a large role in the race, Gentes says.
“Those are the bread-and-butter issues,” Gentes says. He’s counting on a change in demographics in Lake County, as well as Obama’s presence on the ticket, to help him upend his Republican foe.
“The Obama voter registration drive has been beneficial to Democrats overall,” Gentes says. “The Obama effect has the potential to be huge.”
Gentes says he believes Democratic discord in the Statehouse won’t hurt his chances. “The vast majority of people in my suburban district seem to have no idea what’s going on down there in Springfield, except to wonder why Gov. Blagojevich seems to be going crazy.”
In the far northwest corner of Illinois, the retirement of Sieben, a Republican from Geneseo, has put his 45th Senate District seat up for grabs. Sieben helped pave the trail for continuing GOP control in the district by leaving office in May so his Republican protégé, former Lee County Sheriff Tim Bivins of Dixon, could be appointed to the seat.
Bivins is going up against Marty Mulcahey, a Galena Democrat who formerly worked for the Illinois secretary of state’s office. He’s now campaigning for the post full time.
Mulcahey is running on a platform of economic development, saying the largely rural district is losing too many young people to larger cities. “We need to stop the exodus of jobs from this state and this country,” says Mulcahey, whose father, Dick Mulcahey, represented the area from 1975 to 1992.
“There’s no question that the Obama factor is going to be a benefit to me and other Democrats down the ticket,” Mulcahey says. But he acknowledges the ongoing infighting among Democrats who control state government isn’t doing him any favors.
“It is something that could play out as a negative,” Mulcahey says.
Republicans are playing defense in the 27th Senate District, where GOP incumbent Matt Murphy of Palatine faces another race against Democrat Peter Gutzmer of Hoffman Estates.
Democrats are counting on an influx of Democratic voters into the area to help end Republican rule in a district that once elected conservative Peter Fitzgerald to represent them in Springfield before he went on to win a U.S. Senate seat.
Murphy beat Gutzmer, a firefighter, by about 3,200 votes in 2006.
Democrats are the ones trying to hold on in two other Senate districts.
In the 59th Senate District, Forby will attempt to shrug off a difficult legislative session, in which he was at odds with Senate President Emil Jones Jr. on some high-profile issues.
For example, Forby pushed to freeze skyrocketing electric rates but was stopped in his tracks by Jones, who favored a different outcome. Forby also opposed Jones when the Senate leader supported legislative pay raises. And Forby pushed hard for an ultimately failed statewide construction program.
With his brother, Brad, already serving in the Senate, Ken Burzynski is counting on the family ties to help him craft his campaign. Ken Burzynski says the strained relationship between Forby and the now-retiring Jones is an example of why voters should elect a Republican.
“Southern Illinois can no longer afford to wait on Sen. Forby and his Chicago-centered leadership to solve the most pressing issue facing our region: job creation,” Burzynski says.
Freshman Democratic state Sen. Linda Holmes of Aurora also faces a challenge. After narrowly winning in 2006, Holmes is again facing Republican Terri Ann Wintermute of Bolingbrook.
In the House, Chicago’s suburbs are again a battleground.
In the 65th District, Republican incumbent Rosemary Mulligan faces another tough challenge as Madigan looks to expand his majority. Mulligan, who supports abortion and gay rights, is being challenged by Democrat Aurora Austriaco, a Park Ridge attorney.
The retirement of state Rep. Carolyn Krause of Mount Prospect has also opened the door for Madigan to make inroads. Democrat Mark Walker of Arlington Heights is challenging Elk Grove Village trustee Christine Prochno for the 66th House District seat.
The 56th House District race also could be heated, with Republican-turned-Democrat Paul Froelich of Schaumburg attempting to fend off a challenge from Anita Forte-Scott. Froelich switched parties in the middle of last term, leaving Republicans hungry to oust him for his flip-flop.
In the 17th House District, Republican Elizabeth Coulson is facing a challenge from Democrat Daniel Biss of Evanston, a political newcomer, who is credited with running a well-organized campaign.
In the early going, Biss was outperforming Coulson in raising money. State election reports show Biss raised $50,000 more than Coulson in the first half of 2008. Coulson, who is in her 11th year in office, has attempted to position herself at the liberal end of the Republican spectrum in a district that is largely Democratic.
State Rep. Aaron Schock’s decision to run for a seat in Congress has put his 92nd House District seat in play. Democrat Jehan Gordon of Peoria enjoyed heavy financial backing from labor unions during a tough primary. She emerged and is facing Republican Jean Krupa of Peoria Heights.
In the Rockford area, Republican state Rep. Ron Wait of Belvidere is looking to continue his tenure as a lawmaker, which covers two stints in the House over the past quarter century. Wait’s opponent is attorney Greg Tuite, who came within 1,400 votes of beating Wait in 2006 without the help of the state Democratic Party.
In a reflection of his performance two years ago, Tuite already has been endorsed by the state’s teachers unions.
“I am honored to have the support of local teachers and believe that we need to change the direction our state is heading,” Tuite says.
In southern Illinois, the departure of longtime state Rep. Kurt Granberg, a Democrat from Carlyle, has sparked a lively race between Republican John Cavaletto, a Salem businessman, and Democrat Patti Hahn, the Marion County treasurer. Cavaletto nearly beat Granberg in 2006, prompting Granberg to end his legislative career in search of a job within Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s administration.
While Cavaletto is a known quantity within the district, Hahn is expected to have the financial backing of Granberg and state Rep. Jay Hoffman, a Collinsville Democrat who is Blagojevich’s chief ally in the House.
Cavaletto is campaigning on a theme of economic development and says issues such as jobs and Democratic infighting in Springfield will play a bigger role in voter’s minds than Obama.
“People feel like they are getting cheated by the people who are in office up there,” Cavaletto says. “They are not talking about Obama. It’s not playing down here.”
Targeted races
SENATE
26th District
Bill Gentes, Round Lake Democrat
Dan Duffy, Lake Barrington Republican
27th District
Peter Gutzmer, Hoffman Estates Democrat
Matt Murphy, Palatine Republican (incumbent)
42nd District
Linda Holmes, Aurora Democrat (incumbent)
Terri Ann Wintermute, Bolingbrook Republican
45th District
Marty Mulcahey, Galena Democrat
Tim Bivins, Dixon Republican (incumbent)
59th District
Gary Forby, Benton Democrat (incumbent)
Ken Burzynski, Benton Republican
HOUSE
17th District
Daniel Biss, Evanston Democrat
Elizabeth Coulson, Glenview Republican (incumbent)
56th District
Paul Froelich, Schaumburg Democrat (incumbent)
Anita Forte-Scott, Schaumburg Republican
65th District
Aurora Austriaco, Park Ridge Democrat
Rosemary Mulligan, Des Plaines Republican (incumbent)
66th District
Mark Walker, Arlington Heights Democrat
Christine Prochno, Elk Grove Village Republican
69th District
Greg Tuite, Rockford Democrat
Ronald Wait, Belvidere Republican (incumbent)
92nd District
Jehan Gordon, Peoria Democrat
Joan Gore Krupa, Peoria Heights Republican
107th District
Patti Hahn, Centralia Democrat
John Cavaletto, Salem Republican
Kurt Erickson is the Springfield bureau chief for Lee Enterprises newspapers.
Illinois Issues, September 2008
