As an especially close election enters its final stage, George W. Bush and John Kerry are courting a small but increasingly significant minority: undecided voters. In most polls, they make up about 5 percent of likely voters, comparable to the single-digit gap between the two presidential candidates.
Among registered voters, the margin is so slight the votes that go uncounted this year could decide the contest. In 2000, spoiled ballots accounted for 2 percent of the turnout, as 1.9 million votes went uncounted. Florida, with its 25 electoral votes, became the focus of national frustration when ballot woes held the election hostage for two months.
Unfortunately, a significant body of evidence suggests that actions taken since the 2000 debacle have fallen short of assuring Americans an error-free election day this November 2. The most disconcerting reports come from battleground states that together hold 47 electoral votes: Ohio and, again, Florida.
A Harvard University study published this summer shows that Florida was responsible for nearly 8 percent of the nation’s spoiled ballots in 2000.
But the problems were not limited to swing states. Illinois tossed more spoiled ballots than any other state. And the Harvard study shows a disproportional number of uncounted votes in counties with large minority populations, a statistic illustrated by Illinois.
In 2000, this state threw out 190,000 votes, or about 9,000 more than Florida. There was no uproar, though, as Al Gore won Illinois, a Democratic stronghold, by three times the number of spoiled votes.
But in Cook County, where minorities make up nearly half the population, 120,000 votes went uncounted, an error rate of 6 percent. Consequently, the American Civil Liberties Union of Illinois filed a lawsuit, alleging that the discrepancies were dramatically higher in precincts with a majority of minority voters. The ACLU won the suit, forcing future ballot reforms, but punch cards will still be used in November. Cook County voters can, however, check for over- or under-votes using ballot counters implemented in 2002.
Still, there’s always room for human error. In the March primary, election judges had their first encounter with provisional ballots, which allow voters who can’t verify registration to cast votes, with the validity to be determined later. A Chicago Sun-Times analysis showed that 86 percent of Cook County’s 9,982 provisional ballots were tossed out, most because they were cast in the wrong precinct or didn’t include the necessary paperwork.
Provisional ballots are part of the Help America Vote Act, federal legislation intended to make the butterfly ballot extinct and guard against a repeat of the 2000 election. Intent aside, implementation of the law has been burdensome, as the federal government was slow to appoint an oversight commission and stingy with funding.
Illinois, the state responsible for the most spoiled ballots in 2000, received an exemption allowing punch cards to persist until 2006. But Kerry, a Democrat, is expected to handily defeat the Republican president here in Illinois, placing less emphasis on our potential ballot woes.
Ohio is a different story.
A significant body of evidence suggests that actions taken since the 2000 election have fallen short of assuring Americans an error-free election day this November 2.
The controversy started last summer, when Walden O’Dell, chief executive of Diebold Inc., penned a fundraising letter informing supporters that he was “committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year.”
Only days later, Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, a Republican, certified Diebold as one of the firms eligible to sell electronic voting equipment in the state. By the end of 2003, Diebold was the only company offering electronic machines in Ohio. Two private-sector studies commissioned by the state found dozens of security flaws in the software and equipment the firms were offering. Diebold submitted revised specs, but the other three dropped out.
Yet another round of analysis found further security flaws in Diebold’s technology. So, this summer, Blackwell halted deployment of Diebold machines, forcing four Ohio counties to return to their old equipment.
Overall, about three-fourths of Ohioans will cast their votes this November on punch cards, the equipment blamed for the 2000 debacle. Ohio threw out 94,000 uncounted votes four years ago, but that drew little attention, as President Bush won the state by nearly twice that margin. The race promises to be tighter this year.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll taken prior to the Republican National Convention had Bush and Kerry in a dead heat, with each receiving support from 48 percent of likely voters. The president fares slightly better in a recent Gallup Poll of likely voters, as a two-point post-convention bounce gave him a seven-point lead over Kerry. But Bush’s lead drops to one point when the query is limited to registered voters, suggesting that a slight margin of uncounted votes could loom large if the undecided stay home.
In Illinois, even the relatively high 4 percent spoilage rate seen four years ago, would not have changed the state’s electoral bent, nor are spoiled ballots likely to loom large this year. Uncounted presidential votes aren’t of much national concern in states that are solid blue or unwavering red.
But Florida showed that ballot problems can wreak havoc in a contested state that offers a sizable chunk of the 270 electoral votes a candidate needs to declare victory. Polls show solid support for Bush in 20 states, for a total of 166 electoral votes. Kerry gets the nod in 11 states that add up to 168 electoral votes. That leaves 19 states and 204 electoral votes up for grabs, including 20 in Ohio.
Some observers, among them Gov. Bob Taft, a Republican, have raised the specter of Ohio becoming the Florida of 2004.
Blackwell, the state’s top election official, did little to assuage those fears when he sent the Ohio Senate president a recent letter warning that “the possibility of a close election with punch cards as the state’s primary voting device, invites a Florida-like calamity.”
The potential for hanging chads and other abnormalities that can arise when citizens attempt to puncture perforated paper ballots helped disrupt the election in Florida and led to the extra precaution that now allows Cook County voters to double-check their decisions.
But in Ohio, it was the absence of a paper trail that held back new voting technology. The touchscreen machines that Diebold offered may have resembled ATMs, but they didn’t offer citizens a receipt. Conversely, Illinois law mandates a paper trail, which is why the state probably won’t see touchscreen devices until 2006. Instead, more than half of Illinois jurisdictions will use optical scan equipment in November. Those voters will fill in ovals on paper ballots and can then check their ballots with scanners.
Some Florida counties have made the switch to touchscreen devices, but not without complications or controversy.
Uncounted residential votes aren't of much national concern in states that are solid blue or unwavering red. But Florida showed that ballot problems can wreak havoc in a contested state that offers a sizable chunk of the 270 electoral votes a candidate needs to declare victory.
Miami-Dade County used the machines for the 2002 gubernatorial primary. But when a good-government group asked for the electronic records from that race, they were told the data no longer exists. Officials said computer crashes last year wiped out those records, though they say existing election records are now backed up on a daily basis.
Citizens also are challenging a state regulation that rules out manual recounts for the 15 counties where trails are paperless because touchscreen devices are in place. Florida law says a recount can only be used to determine voter intent. Since touchscreen devices don’t allow a citizen to over-vote and they remind those who miss a contest, the state ruled that the machines are infallible when it comes to voter intent. The rest of the state uses optical scan technology, which would provide paper ballots should the need for a recount arise.
While the technology is new, it’s too early to say whether Florida can avoid the errors of four years ago. The state is off to a rough start. Florida officials scrapped a list of nearly 48,000 felons who were to be denied ballots this year after reporters found countless flaws. The same problem was discovered after the 2000 election, when an error-plagued list kept some citizens with clean records away from the polls.
Another unsettling story comes out of Jacksonville, Fla., where participants in a June naturalization ceremony say they were immediately encouraged to enjoy one of their newfound freedoms by registering to vote. The catch: The registration forms available had allegedly already been marked Republican.
Democrats there said they found evidence that at least 23 registration forms were premarked. That may not sound like much, but President Bush won Florida by only 573 votes four years ago.
Along the same lines, the 2 percent national ballot spoilage rate of 2000 may not seem substantial, but Florida tossed out 300 times as many votes as the president’s margin of victory.
This year, election watchers will indeed have their eyes on the Sunshine State, and the Buckeye State, hoping the spoils don’t determine the victor.
Pat Guinane can be reached at capitolbureau@aol.com.
Illinois Issues, October 2004
