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Illinois Issues
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Opportunity Knocks: Whether IL Republicans Can Capitalize on Democratic Missteps Remains to be Seen

WUIS/Illinois Issues

After nearly seven years of total Democratic rule in Illinois, voters can easily tally the results — an indicted governor who allegedly sold out the state to the highest bidders, a big push for a major income tax hike and a budget so far in the red that contractors routinely get stiffed. 

That is why Republicans believe they can finally run a winning statewide race. 

But not so fast. 

Case in point: the Republicans’ coming out day at the Illinois State Fair in August. It was a perfect opportunity to command the spotlight, blast Democrats and promise something better for Illinois.

Chance blown. 

The party’s own chairman, Andy McKenna, seemed to upstage GOP efforts to appear as a renewed political force when he took that day to abruptly resign his post. 

Then upstart gubernatorial candidate state Sen. Matt Murphy used the platform to run negative TV campaign ads in Republican-rich central Illinois. The ads were aimed at blasting another suburban GOP candidate as a tax-and-spend liberal.

(Just weeks later, Murphy dropped out of the race to pair up with McKenna’s bid for governor as a lieutenant governor hopeful.)

The State Fair event was yet another example of a dysfunctional party as its own worst enemy, even as the stars have clearly aligned in its favor. 

“You could look at this situation and say, ‘It should be a strong Republican year,’” says Mike Lawrence, a veteran political analyst and former director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. “What I’m saying is that is far from guaranteed. It is far from automatic.”

Still, top Republicans insist they will not blow the chance they’ve been handed by Democrats. Party leaders have a plan, and it goes something like this:

  • Use U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk’s Senate bid as a national financial draw, utilizing the infrastructure built for that contest to help the party’s entire ticket.
  • Focus resources like a laser on the governor’s mansion. The governor’s seat is critical to having leverage over the next redistricting map, which in turn is critical to winning back the Illinois Senate and House. 
  • Capitalize on the so-called Tea Party movement and traditional midterm backlash. At least one top-tier congressional race is expected to draw attention and money with a strong challenge against Democrat Bill Foster of Geneva, who now holds former GOP House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert’s west suburban seat. 
  • Target three or four key Illinois Senate seats. Among them, the battles are expected to include challenges to Democrats Mike Noland in the Elgin-based 22nd District and Michael Bond of Grayslake in the north suburban 31st District. The GOP can claim victory if it is able to end the Demo-crats’ current supermajority in the Senate, even if it doesn’t gain control in that chamber. 
  • In the Illinois House, zero in on a handful of seats, mostly in the northwest suburbs, where anti-Todd Stroger and anti-tax rhetoric will play well. The GOP has no real hope of winning control in either the House or Senate, party leaders concede openly, given the Democrats’ huge edge in cash and party organization. Plus, the GOP is playing on a Democrat-drawn district map. 
  • Keep the message focused on ethics and fiscal responsibility. Doing so not only capitalizes on Blagojevich and the Democratic tax hike push, but it veers the conversation away from social issues such as abortion, guns and gay rights that most often divide the GOP internally. 

On its face, the plan seems plausible.
If all goes well, the Republicans will have a solid chance to cut into the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate and take the state’s top two posts. By the following election cycle, the GOP could aim to regain control of the entire Illinois political landscape.

“If we win that governor’s seat and that Senate seat, we are back in business,” says new Illinois Republican Party chairman Pat Brady. “This has to be done incrementally. First and foremost is the Senate and governor’s mansion.”

But that is still just a best-case-scenario plan subject to many influences outside any strategist’s control. Plus, if anything, Republicans have shown reluctance to follow such road maps, particularly when it comes to the first step: primary elections. 

Unlike the Democrats, who have a natural edge in fundraising, volunteers and state demographics, Republicans don’t have the luxury to lose face and steam in bitter primary battles. Moreover, they lack a clear leadership structure like Chicago Democratic clans can often use to keep damage to a minimum. 

Republicans most often win in Illinois through the consensus of active interest groups and fundraisers, combined with a compelling message that independent voters buy. 

Former Elgin state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger, who now heads the United Republican Fund, says the GOP’s distinct electoral disadvantage has been its inability to heal internal wounds after primaries. 

“There is no senior leadership around the Republican Party with enough respect to bring the elements together,” says Rauschenberger, who plans to make a run to win back his old 22nd District seat. “The Republican Party has to find its new face and new leadership vision.”

That is why this upcoming primary is so critical for Republicans. 

The animosity sown in these battles, the money wasted or the costly infrastructure built — not to mention the candidates that emerge — are all critical factors that will influence the comeback road map. 

Aside from the State Fair this summer, an illustration of what problems lay ahead for the party can clearly be seen in the already rocky start by favored GOP Senate contender Mark Kirk — who some believe is the linchpin of the plan for a Republican comeback. 

Many state and national GOP leaders came out early in support of Kirk (some endorsing him back during the Republican National Convention), hoping to chase away any other well-known or well-funded challengers. 

Although the strategy appears to have worked, the moderate north suburban congressman still might not gain support from the more active elements of his party’s conservative base.

Kirk has made a name for himself as a moderate willing to buck the party on key social issues such as abortion and gay rights. That has helped him consistently win elections ­­­— even against strong Democratic challengers — in the 10th District, where voters regularly choose liberals in other ballot contests. 

Yet some in the Republican Party don’t view those traits as desirable in a GOP?candidate. The threat of a divisive primary that even further erodes Kirk’s support among the party’s base was evident this summer. 

A slew of groups with social policy interests have backed little-known candidate Patrick Hughes, a party activist and real estate developer from Hinsdale. Paul Caprio, head of Family-PAC Federal, an anti-abortion group, was one of those to sign an open letter supporting Hughes for Senate. 

Caprio doesn’t believe the contention that damaging Kirk will undermine the GOP’s chances in the general election. He points to Peter Fitzgerald’s 1998 victory in his U.S. Senate bid as a sign that a true-blood conservative on social issues can win statewide even after upsetting the party brass’ favorite.

“We feel that primaries are healthy for the party,” Caprio says of the decision to back Hughes. “It is an opportunity to bring new people into the party and focus the attention of Republicans on their differences, so the best possible Republican can be nominated.”

When asked whether he and his followers could support Kirk after the primary, Caprio replies: “I think the question that you might want to ask Mark Kirk is if he is ready to endorse Pat Hughes.”

Caprio later adds, “I think it depends on the tenor of the primary, as long as the candidates stick to issues and not personalities, and also on how the party leadership manages the primary.”

Many fear that if Kirk comes out of the primary irreparably separated from the party’s conservative base, he will have trouble winning statewide and therefore difficulty drawing the national support needed to help down-ballot contests. A lesser known and more conservative candidate winning the nomination could have an even greater negative impact in the general election. 

The cracks are already appearing. 

Kirk’s early primary run has been a dizzying study in tightrope walking. 

On the campaign trail, he blasts government spending, carefully avoiding the reality that he voted for the massive Wall Street bailout last year. 

And when he announced his Senate bid in July, Kirk’s office was flooded with angry calls about his vote for President Barack Obama’s coveted cap-and-trade energy legislation. 

At an August congressional break meeting on health care reform, Kirk sat next to U.S. Rep. Judy Biggert of Hinsdale before Naperville business leaders while she blasted cap-and-trade as an egregious middle-class tax hike. Biggert is actually a huge Kirk supporter, but she couldn’t sugar coat the issue, even with him at her side.

Kirk defended his vote that day as an effort to wean America off foreign oil and therefore a vote for national security. Now Kirk says he won’t vote for the legislation if he is in the Senate, and he only supported it because district residents wanted him to do so. 

All this comes even before his primary opponents have started slinging mud.

Regardless, the February primary allows for about a six-month cooling off period before the general election battle really begins to heat up next summer. 

GOP chairman Brady is counting on that window to heal the wounds of primary battles, and he hopes the drive to regain power, along with a surge in Republican anger over Democratic rule at state and federal levels, will overcome common grievances. 

“I think the party is a lot more unified than in previous election cycles,” Brady says. “They are sick of being in the minority and not being in control.”

In part, Brady’s hopes are buoyed by the fact that the dominant issues of the election cycle appear to be fiscal matters and ethics, with Democrats having seemingly run the state budget and moral compass into the ground over the past six years. That keeps attention away from issues such as guns and abortion that can divide the party and scare away moderate independent voters who are crucial for victory. 

“Those two messages are going to resonate,” Brady says. 

Rauschenberger, a policy wonk often on the conservative side of the spectrum who lost a bid for lieutenant governor in 2006, agrees. 

Rauschenberger believes poll numbers paint a promising picture. He doesn’t see more and more voters turning Democratic in the state; they are turning independent and just happen to have favored Democrats lately. 

Those voters, he claims, can be won back with the right message. 

“You have to make that connection with the independent voter,” he says. “You have to lose your negative message and turn it around with a positive set of proposals.”

So, there is a plan, there is a will and there appears to be a way. Still, many are hesitant to say there is a probability, and few are willing to place their bets on red … yet. 

“I think we will have a lot better sense of this after we see the primaries,” says Lawrence, who was a top aide to the last popular Republican governor, Jim Edgar. “The Republicans seem to have a capacity for cannibalism. And you are seeing the beginnings of it already.”

 

Whom to watch in the GOP and what to look for

 

U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk of Highland Park

Mark Kirk
Credit WUIS/Illinois Issues
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WUIS/Illinois Issues
Mark Kirk

  Given his financial backing and name recognition, winning the GOP U.S. Senate primary should be a given for Kirk. But watch how he walks the tightrope between conservative and moderate activists in his own party. If he can manage to bridge that divide, it bodes well for Republicans up and down the ballot in the general election.

Kirk Dillard & Bob Schillerstrom
Credit WUIS/Illinois Issues
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WUIS/Illinois Issues
Kirk Dillard & Bob Schillerstrom

State Sen. Kirk Dillard of Hinsdale and DuPage County Board chairman Bob Schillerstrom of Naperville 

A nasty bout between these two contenders for governor could fracture the all-important suburban vote in the last remaining Chicago-area GOP bastion, DuPage County. If they can play well together, that will pay dividends for the entire party.  

Andy McKenna, former party chairman from Chicago?

Andy McKenna
Credit WUIS/Illinois Issues
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WUIS/Illinois Issues
Andy McKenna

  Before he stepped down as party chairman, the former failed statewide candidate was angling for a U.S. Senate bid, potentially undermining Kirk, even though he praised the north suburbanite’s candidacy and has long blasted divisive primaries. Since stepping down, McKenna has been running for governor, adding to a field crowded with known commodities. But if he does gain steam, can Republicans rally around a latecomer who riled the conservative wing as party leader and angered some moderate forces by running in the first place?   

State Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington and conservative commentator Dan Proft of Wheaton

Bill Brady & Dan Proft
Credit WUIS/Illinois Issues
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WUIS/Illinois Issues
Bill Brady & Dan Proft

  These gubernatorial candidates are among those seen as representing the conservative wing of the party. If they gain high vote totals, or win, that is a clear sign the party’s active electorate is heading further right, and many think that won’t help a statewide general election bid in the liberal-leaning state. 

Attorney general candidate Steve Kim, a Northbrook lawyer, and secretary of state challenger Robert Enriquez, an Aurora businessman

Steve Kim & Robert Enriquez
Credit WUIS/Illinois Issues
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WUIS/Illinois Issues
Steve Kim & Robert Enriquez

Few expect these little-known contenders to win against Democratic powerhouses Lisa Madigan and Jesse White. But, they could help bring minority voters into the GOP fold. If they can win any attention (and that would require considerable effort), that is a good thing for the party. If they are seen as token contenders rather than a serious outreach effort by the party, the move could backfire.

Roger Keats of Wilmette, candidate for Cook County Board president 

Roger Keats
Credit WUIS/Illinois Issues
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WUIS/Illinois Issues
Roger Keats

  To help the party, the former state lawmaker doesn’t have to win his run for Cook County Board president. He only has to draw attention in the general election to bring a focus on Cook County corruption and fiscal issues that would in turn boost the chances of Republican statewide and district-level candidates. “When we’re passing out our nominating petitions, I just say, ‘We’re the team against Todd Stroger,’” Keats told supporters at September’s Cook County GOP convention. 
“They all but knock me down trying to get the petition out of my hands, saying, ‘Where do I sign?’’’ Keats is favored in the primary by the GOP establishment, but he is expected to face a challenge.

Joseph Ryan is a political writer for the Arlington Heights-based Daily?Herald.

Illinois Issues, November 2009

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