Gov. Rod Blagojevich's State of the State address had a familiar ring for devotees of late-night television, where infomercials reign supreme. Sounding like a video pitchman, the governor extolled the "significant progress" the state has made during his tenure and promised even greater achievements in the future.
In the 39-minute address, Blagojevich touted his record in health care, school funding and job creation, pushed a $3.2 billion public works plan, and offered new initiatives to help pay college tuition costs and to provide veterans health care.
And he contrasted his record on health care, education and jobs to policies out of Washington that he said have been "indifferent and sometimes even hostile" to working and middle-class families. Indeed, the governor's frequent criticisms of the Republican-controlled federal government made it seem as though Blagojevich were gearing up for a national role, rather than laying the groundwork for a gubernatorialp campaign.
But just as discerning viewers take the TV hucksters' claims with a large measure of skepticism, so too might Illinois voters want to examine in greater detail some of the governor's talking points.
Consider, for example, the governor's claim to have solved the budget woes he faced when he took office in January 2003. "The $5 billion budget hole could have been filled with massive cuts in health care," he said. "We could have cut education. We could have raised taxes and asked people to have less money in their paychecks. A lot of people said you couldn't increase funding for schools, provide health care for kids, eliminate the deficit and do it all without raising taxes. But we found a different way."
Consider, for example, the governor's claim to have solved the budget woes he faced when he took office in January 2003.
In fact, the governor's "different way" largely involved raising business taxes and fees — to the tune of roughly $1 billion — borrowing unprecedented amounts and putting off paying billions of dollars of obligations.
In Blagojevich's first three years, the state's outstanding debt jumped to $19.9 billion from $7.6 billion, including $10 billion in pension bonds. Moreover, the payment schedule was "backloaded," so that only interest was paid in the first few years with most of the principal to be paid in the final years of the bonds, saving some $1.3 billion in debt service costs during the governor's first term. Over the life of the bonds, however, the backloading will cost the state some $6.3 billion more, according to analysts.
Similarly, the legislature and the governor chose to reduce pension contributions by $2.3 billion this year and next, freeing up those dollars for health care, education and the other causes so dear to the governor. But the long-term price tag to the state could be as high as $6.8 billion, largely in lost investment income from the money not put into the retirement kitty.
And, despite borrowing $1 billion in November to pay past due Medicaid claims, the state still faced a $906 million cash payables backlog at year's end, according to the comptroller's office.
In his address, the governor noted that education funding has increased by $2.3 billion during his tenure, more than any other Midwestern state. While commendable, the influx of state dollars has made only a minor dent in the inequity that plagues school funding in Illinois because of the state's heavy reliance on local property taxes, enabling wealthier school districts to spend two or three times as much per student as their poorer cousins. As a result, Illinois earned only a D+ for resource equity in Quality Counts — 2006, a nationally recognized survey of education policy, the worst performance of any Midwestern state.
Blagojevich also proposed a $1,000 tuition tax credit for the first two years of college for students who keep a "B" average, which he said would help make "the dream of college affordable." Indeed, tuition has been increasing, an average of 10.5 percent a year for the state's public universities over the past five years. But the tuition hikes are largely the result of a decline in state funding for the institutions, down some $196 million, or 13 percent, during the same period. While the need for some relief seems clear, less certain is how the state can afford the program's estimated $90 million price tag.
In similar fashion, the governor crowed that Illinois is the only state "that guarantees every child access to affordable, comprehensive health care." Whether a guarantee on paper translates into actual health care for real kids remains to be seen. In fact, the administration has yet to fashion the rules under which the program will operate starting in July, and major questions remain about physician participation and program costs.
The governor also didn't offer any funding source for his proposal to provide health coverage for uninsured military veterans who don't live near a veterans' hospital, which carries an estimated $10 million price tag.
In addition, funding concerns dog the governor's public works initiative, which he labeled a "jobs bill" in his address. The plan calls for borrowing $2.3 billion for highway and bridge projects, $425 million for mass transit improvements and $500 million for school construction. Blagojevich contends the highway bonds can be repaid with $200 million a year in surplus money from the state's road-building accounts. To cover mass transit, he's counting on $35 million a year in natural revenue growth from an improving economy, while the $45 million a year to repay the school bonds would come from a new gambling game, keno.
But transportation analysts question whether the road fund has a surplus, given the state's growing backlog of highway maintenance work, much of which can't be paid for with bonds. And public reaction was so negative to Blagojevich's plan to expand the state's gambling roster that he omitted mention of keno in the address.
The governor's aides assured reporters and other skeptics that the State of the State was a vision statement of sorts, that the details — including how to pay for the new initiatives — would be made clear in a few weeks when the governor delivers his FY 2007 budget proposal.
Until then, the prudent response to the State of the State — just as to any other infomercial — probably should be caveat emptor, let the buyer beware.
Charles N. Wheeler III is director of the Public Affairs Reporting program at the University of Illinois at Springfield.
Illinois Issues, February 2006
